ARKANSAS ELECTION LINE RATES SECOND DISTRICT RACE AS 'LEANS GRIFFIN'

 

Note: The Arkansas Election Line (AEL) is a joint project of Talk Business' Roby Brock, Jason Tolbert of the Tolbert Report and Blake Rutherford of Blake's Think Tank. AEL joins The Rothenberg Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, The Cook Political Report and The New York Times in rating the Arkansas-02 race as leaning toward Republican nominee Tim Griffin.

Talk Business Says Griffin Campaign Disciplined with Fundraising and New Media Advantages. "Griffin is a conservative candidate who has run a disciplined campaign with a consistent message of right-of-center policy positions. He is for a balanced budget, smaller government, and less regulation ... Arkansas is trending conservative this election cycle as it rejects the activism of the Obama Presidency.... Veteran voters ... are likely to vote for Griffin in large numbers this year. He is a 14-year member of the U.S. Army Reserve.... Griffin has proven to be better at the money game ... Griffin's use of new media and his campaign's ability to rapidly respond is superior" ("ARKANSAS ELECTION LINE: U.S. CONGRESS, DISTRICT 2," Talk Business, 6/23/10)

The Tolbert Report Says Present Environment Favors Griffin."We fully expect that the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ... will spend considerable resources ... however the present conservative anti-Obama tilt of the country will favor Griffin.... Expect efforts to be made to connect Elliott with the Obama Administration and Griffin with the Bush Administration. If both groups are successful in doing this, in the current political climate, Griffin wins this one." ("Arkansas Election Line: AR2 'Leans Griffin'," The Tolbert Report, 6/23/10)

Blake's Think Tank: Griffin an 'Effective Campaigner,' Has Favorable Climate. "[T]he climate favors Republicans. In a recent poll Gallup noted that enthusiasm was higher for Republicans than for Democrats. On a generic ballot, Republicans are beating Democrats. Locally, Mr. Griffin has proven to be an effective campaigner... He raised a lot of money; ran effective television advertisements; and demonstrated a prowess to organize and mobilize online." ("The Arkansas Election Line: #AR02: Leans Griffin," Blake's Think Tank, 6/23/10)